Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
